Here we go again, the second recall attempt mounted by Republicans against a sitting Democratic governor of California in 18 years. Why so much use of the recall here? Simply put, it\u2019s because, all things being equal, Republicans can\u2019t win in a fair-and-square regular election in California.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s recount the Republicans\u2019 recent history of electoral impotence in the state.<\/p>\n
In November, President Trump won only 34.3% of the statewide vote. With his 2016 result \u2014 31.6% \u2014 these are the two lowest percentages of any Republican nominee for president in California since Alf Landon in 1936.<\/p>\n
In 2010, 2014 and 2018, Republicans failed to capture a single one of the eight statewide constitutional offices. In fact, a Republican hasn\u2019t won statewide office since 2006, 15 years ago.<\/p>\n
In 2018, no GOP candidate even made it out of the top-two primary and into the general election in three of the eight statewide contests. In the five in which there was a Republican candidate, John Cox, running against Gavin Newsom, received the highest share of the vote \u2014 a paltry\u00a038%<\/a>. No other Republican candidate received more than 36% of the vote.<\/p>\n It gets worse. In the last two U.S.<\/i>\u00a0Senate races in California, the state GOP also failed to power a Republican into the fall election. The 2016 and 2018 contests both featured Democrat-on-Democrat runoffs. Republicans haven\u2019t won a Senate race in California since 1988.<\/p>\n In 2003, Republicans mounted a recall against Gov. Gray Davis, who was less than a year into his second term. Why? They couldn\u2019t unseat Davis in the general election the previous year, despite his record low job approval (remember the electricity crisis?). But the recall gave the GOP a mulligan, and \u2014 success! \u2014 a mechanism designed as an emergency exercise in direct democracy proved to be a winning strategy for the state\u2019s otherwise anemic Republicans.<\/p>\n And it\u2019s not just in statewide elections they have resorted to recalls. One need look no further than recent elections in California\u2019s 29th Senate District, covering northern Orange County and part of the southeastern tip of Los Angeles County, to understand the Republican reliance on recalls. This was an open seat in 2016 because the two-term Republican senator was term-limited. The seat and its previous configurations had been held by Republicans for decades.<\/p>\n In the 2016 general election, Democrat Josh Newman defeated then-GOP Assembly member Ling Ling Chang, flipping the seat to the Democrats \u2014 and giving them a two-thirds majority in the Senate.<\/p>\n Two years later, Republicans qualified a recall against Newman, ostensibly because he supported a transportation tax increase, but, more cynically, in an overt attempt to deny Democrats their two-thirds Senate majority, which the GOP had proved incapable of doing in the previous regularly scheduled election.<\/p>\n The\u00a0recall election<\/a>\u00a0was combined with a June primary that year; primaries are lower-turnout elections. Newman was recalled and replaced by \u2014 guess who? \u2014 Ling Ling Chang, who ran as a replacement candidate. Then Newman ran to reclaim the seat last year, in the regularly scheduled general election, and\u00a0he retired<\/a>\u00a0Chang for a second time, recapturing the seat for the Democrats.<\/p>\n See the pattern here?<\/p>\n